Primera División - Apertura · Mar 14, 2026 13:00
Cerrito
PWR 46
Progreso
PWR 35
Cerrito
PWR 46
1-1
predicted
Progreso
PWR 35
45%
25%
30%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Cerrito Win
Score
1-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
0-0 (32%)1-0 (26%)0-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)1-1 (9%)2-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
DC 1X
Home/Draw
1.53x
DC X2
Away/Draw
1.69x
Over 2.5
11%
Under 2.5
89%
89%
BTTS
No
No 16%
Over 3.5
5%
Team Comparison
30Attack0
72Defense100
Goals/G
0.80.0
Conc/G
0.80.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Cerrito
LDDLL
STABLE
Progreso
DDLLL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk29%
Accuracy56%
POSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAP
Full data available (Tier 1)Away team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 instead
High draw risk (28.5%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Cerritovs
0.34
ProgresoGoal Probability
Cerrito
0
45%
1
36%
2
15%
3
4%
4
1%
Progreso
0
71%
1
24%
2
4%
3
1%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (26%)1-0 (22%)0-1 (13%)1-1 (11%)2-0 (10%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 74% | 26% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 39% | 61% | - |
| 2.5 | 16% | 85% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 5% | 95% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 1% | 99% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#4
Cerrito+9
Gap#13
Progreso
WR 34% 42 pts
WR 12% 16 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerrito | 32 | 11 | 9 | 12 | 27 | 26 | 42 |
| Progreso | 25 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 22 | 46 | 16 |
Cerrito
4.0%
| Mar 08 | Cerrito v Racing … | 1-0 |
| Feb 27 | Cerrito v Boston … | 1-1 |
| Feb 20 | Cerrito v Liverpo… | 1-1 |
| Feb 16 | Cerrito v Albion … | 3-0 |
| Feb 09 | Cerrito v Danubio | 0-1 |
| Jan 15 | Cerrito v Racing … | 2-1 |
| Nov 09 | Cerrito v Boston … | 0-0 |
| Nov 01 | Cerrito v Club Na… | 0-0 |
| Oct 26 | Cerrito v Colón | 1-0 |
| Oct 25 | Cerrito v Peñarol… | 2-0 |
Progreso
4.0%
| Mar 07 | Progreso v Albion … | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Progreso v Danubio | 2-2 |
| Feb 21 | Progreso v Club Na… | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Progreso v Deporti… | 2-0 |
| Feb 07 | Progreso v Central… | 0-3 |
| Jan 29 | Progreso v Boston … | 1-2 |
| Jan 22 | Progreso v Club Na… | 1-1 |
| Jan 19 | Progreso v Juventus | 0-1 |
| Jan 12 | Progreso v Defenso… | 0-0 |
| Nov 09 | Progreso v Juventus | 1-1 |
Head-to-Head (1)
| Oct 05, 2025 | Progreso | 2-0 | Cerrito |
Decision Breakdown
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player
40%
Momentum
66%
Standings
50%
Market
43%
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Cerrito struggling (3L in last 5)
Progreso struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.