Paulista - A4 · Mar 14, 2026 18:00
Nacional AM
PWR 31
Nacional AM
PWR 31
0-1
predicted
Penedense
PWR 51
PWR 51
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Penedense to win (55% confidence)
Score
0-1
Confidence
55%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
1-0 (12%)2-0 (11%)1-1 (11%)2-1 (10%)3-0 (7%)0-0 (6%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
BTTS
No 50%
Over 3.5
7%
Team Comparison
21Attack45
52Defense63
Goals/G
0.61.3
Conc/G
1.41.1
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nacional AM
WLWWL
STABLE
Penedense
DLLDL
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk0%
Accuracy0%
League excluded due to poor historical accuracy
Blacklisted league (<60% accuracy): Paulista
Expected Goals (xG)
1.87
Nacional AMvs
0.89
PenedenseGoal Probability
Nacional AM
0
15%
1
29%
2
27%
3
17%
4
8%
Penedense
0
41%
1
37%
2
16%
3
5%
4
1%
CORRECT SCORES
0-0 (22%)0-1 (17%)1-0 (16%)1-1 (13%)0-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 78% | 22% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 45% | 55% | - |
| 2.5 | 20% | 80% | UNDER |
| 3.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
| 4.5 | 2% | 98% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 1% | 100% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 0% | 100% | UNDER |
League Position
#12
Nacional AM-5
Gap#7
Penedense
WR 18% 18 pts
WR 44% 29 pts
| Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional AM | 22 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 13 | 30 | 18 |
| Penedense | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 19 | 29 |
Nacional AM
12.0%
| Mar 08 | Naciona… v Guanaba… | 0-1 |
| Mar 07 | Naciona… v Comerci… | 2-0 |
| Mar 07 | Naciona… v Petrópo… | 3-0 |
| Mar 06 | Naciona… v Amazonas | 3-0 |
| Mar 04 | Naciona… v Taquari… | 0-4 |
| Mar 01 | Naciona… v Toledo | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Naciona… v Princes… | 2-2 |
| Feb 28 | Naciona… v Tanabi | 2-0 |
| Feb 25 | Naciona… v EC Leme… | 0-1 |
| Feb 25 | Naciona… v Novoriz… | 4-0 |
Penedense
4.0%
| Mar 07 | Peneden… v Inter d… | 0-0 |
| Mar 04 | Peneden… v EC Leme… | 1-0 |
| Mar 02 | Peneden… v ASA | 0-1 |
| Feb 28 | Peneden… v Vocem | 0-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peneden… v Taquari… | 3-0 |
| Feb 25 | Peneden… v Londrina | 1-0 |
| Feb 21 | Peneden… v São Cae… | 0-2 |
| Feb 21 | Peneden… v Figueir… | 0-1 |
| Feb 14 | Peneden… v ECUS | 2-1 |
| Feb 11 | Peneden… v Tanabi | 1-2 |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
80%
Standings
50%
Market
50%
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Nacional AM in strong form (3W in last 5)
Penedense struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.