Eredivisie · Mar 14, 2026 20:00
Ajax
PWR 35
Sparta Rotterdam
PWR 35
Ajax
PWR 35
1-1
predicted
Sparta Rotterdam
PWR 35
51%
24%
25%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
STANDARD: Draw expected (43% confidence)
Score
1-1
Confidence
43%
TierSTANDARD
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (8%)2-1 (7%)3-0 (7%)2-0 (6%)3-2 (5%)1-1 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
Over 2.5
71%
71%
Under 2.5
29%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 67%
Over 3.5
47%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Ajax
LDDWD
STABLE
Sparta Rotterd…
DLLDD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeDRAW
Draw Risk30%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)Teams too similar in form - high draw probabilityClose positions (gap<=3) = 30.6% draw rateSimilar PPG = 32.6% draw rateH2H: 3/5 draws (60%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 3/5 recent games = VERY HIGH draw riskHome team drew 3/5 recent gamesElite league - reduced threshold
SAME_STATS: Form WR diff 10%, PPG diff 0.1
Expected Goals (xG)
3.36
Ajaxvs
1.18
Sparta Rotterd…Goal Probability
Ajax
0
4%
1
12%
2
20%
3
22%
4
18%
Sparta Rott…
0
31%
1
36%
2
21%
3
8%
4
3%
CORRECT SCORES
2-1 (9%)1-1 (9%)2-2 (7%)1-2 (7%)2-0 (6%)3-1 (6%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 97% | 3% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 87% | 14% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 47% | 53% | - |
| 4.5 | 28% | 72% | UNDER |
| 5.5 | 14% | 86% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 7% | 93% | UNDER |
League Position
#5
Ajax+2
Gap#7
Sparta Rott…
WR 62% 44 pts
WR 46% 38 pts
Ajax
10.0%
| Mar 07 | Ajax v Groning… | 3-1 |
| Mar 01 | Ajax v PEC Zwo… | 0-0 |
| Feb 21 | Ajax v NEC Nij… | 1-1 |
| Feb 14 | Ajax v Fortuna… | 4-1 |
| Feb 08 | Ajax v AZ Alkm… | 1-1 |
| Feb 01 | Ajax v Excelsi… | 2-2 |
| Jan 28 | Ajax v Olympia… | 1-2 |
| Jan 24 | Ajax v FC Vole… | 2-0 |
| Jan 20 | Ajax v Villarr… | 1-2 |
| Jan 17 | Ajax v GO Ahea… | 2-2 |
Sparta Rotterd…
6.0%
| Mar 08 | Sparta … v PEC Zwo… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Sparta … v Heerenv… | 2-1 |
| Feb 22 | Sparta … v AZ Alkm… | 3-1 |
| Feb 17 | Sparta … v NEC Nij… | 1-1 |
| Feb 07 | Sparta … v Fortuna… | 2-2 |
| Jan 31 | Sparta … v Groning… | 2-0 |
| Jan 25 | Sparta … v Utrecht | 0-1 |
| Jan 18 | Sparta … v Feyenoo… | 3-4 |
| Jan 15 | Sparta … v FC Vole… | 1-2 |
| Jan 11 | Sparta … v Heracles | 2-0 |
Head-to-Head (5)
| Oct 04, 2025 | Sparta Rotter… | 3-3 | Ajax |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Ajax | 1-1 | Sparta Rotter… |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Sparta Rotter… | 0-2 | Ajax |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Sparta Rotter… | 2-2 | Ajax |
| Dec 09, 2023 | Ajax | 2-1 | Sparta Rotter… |
Decision Breakdown
HWR60+ (68.3%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
58%
Market
50%
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.