Primeira Liga · Mar 15, 2026 15:30
Nacional
PWR 35
Estoril
PWR 35
Nacional
PWR 35
2-2
predicted
Estoril
PWR 35
39%
26%
35%
HomeDrawAway
Final Verdict
Prediction
Nacional Win
Score
2-2
Confidence
35%
TierSKIP
LIKELY SCORES
3-1 (7%)2-1 (6%)3-0 (5%)3-2 (5%)2-0 (5%)2-2 (4%)
All Markets
1X2
SKIP
Over 2.5
72%
72%
Under 2.5
28%
BTTS
Yes
Yes 73%
Over 3.5
65%
65%
Team Comparison
0Attack0
100Defense100
Goals/G
0.00.0
Conc/G
0.00.0
Corners/G
0.00.0
Shots/G
0.00.0
Nacional
DLLLD
STABLE
Estoril
DLWLD
STABLE
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk27%
Accuracy38%
Standings data available (Tier 2)WR diff only 0% = 35.1% draw rateH2H: 2/3 draws (67%) = VERY HIGH riskAway team drew 2/5 recent games = HIGH draw riskHome team drew 2/5 recent gamesConsider Asian Handicap or Under 2.5 insteadElite league - reduced threshold
High draw risk (27.2%) - VETO 1X2
Expected Goals (xG)
3.55
Nacionalvs
1.38
EstorilGoal Probability
Nacional
0
3%
1
10%
2
18%
3
21%
4
19%
Estoril
0
25%
1
35%
2
24%
3
11%
4
4%
CORRECT SCORES
1-2 (7%)2-2 (7%)1-3 (6%)2-3 (6%)1-1 (6%)2-1 (5%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 82% | 18% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 65% | 35% | - |
| 4.5 | 46% | 54% | - |
| 5.5 | 29% | 71% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 16% | 84% | UNDER |
League Position
#15
Nacional-7
Gap#8
Estoril
WR 25% 22 pts
WR 25% 34 pts
Nacional
4.0%
| Mar 07 | Nacional v Moreire… | 1-1 |
| Feb 28 | Nacional v SC Braga | 1-2 |
| Feb 21 | Nacional v Arouca | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | Nacional v FC Porto | 0-1 |
| Feb 08 | Nacional v Casa Pi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Nacional v Sportin… | 2-1 |
| Jan 25 | Nacional v Rio Ave… | 4-0 |
| Jan 17 | Nacional v GIL Vic… | 2-1 |
| Jan 11 | Nacional v Santa C… | 3-3 |
| Jan 02 | Nacional v Guimara… | 2-1 |
Estoril
8.0%
| Mar 07 | Estoril v Casa Pi… | 0-0 |
| Feb 27 | Estoril v Sportin… | 3-0 |
| Feb 22 | Estoril v GIL Vic… | 3-1 |
| Feb 15 | Estoril v AVS | 3-0 |
| Feb 07 | Estoril v Tondela | 2-2 |
| Jan 31 | Estoril v Santa C… | 2-4 |
| Jan 24 | Estoril v Guimara… | 4-2 |
| Jan 19 | Estoril v Estrela… | 0-5 |
| Jan 03 | Estoril v Benfica | 3-1 |
| Dec 27 | Estoril v Alverca | 4-1 |
Head-to-Head (3)
| Oct 26, 2025 | Estoril | 1-1 | Nacional |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Nacional | 2-2 | Estoril |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Estoril | 1-0 | Nacional |
Decision Breakdown
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
36%
Market
50%
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Nacional struggling (3L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.