Ligue 1 · Mar 08, 2026 14:00
Lens
PWR 44
Metz
PWR 22
Lens
PWR 44
3 - 0
FT
Metz
PWR 22
59%
22%
19%
HomeDrawAway
Safest Bet
1X (Home/Draw)
Double Chance · Odds imply 73% home + 17% draw = 90% combined
95%
accuracy
1.17x
Final Verdict
Prediction
Lens Win
Score
4-1
Confidence
72%
TierPREMIUM
LIKELY SCORES
2-0 (16%)3-0 (16%)1-0 (11%)2-1 (5%)3-1 (5%)0-0 (4%)
CORRECT 3-0
All Markets
1X2
Suggested
H
DC 1X
90%
Home/Draw
1.17x
DC X2
Away/Draw
3.85x
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
BTTS
No
No 27%
Over 3.5
68%
68%
Team Comparison
51Attack32
76Defense31
Goals/G
1.71.1
Conc/G
0.82.3
Possession
?%?%
Corners/G
??
Shots/G
??
Fouls/G
??
Lens
DDLWW
STABLE
Metz
LLLDL
DOWN
Stability Protocol
DecisionSKIP
OutcomeHOME
Draw Risk21%
Accuracy77%
AWAY_LEAKINGPOSITION_GAPPOINTS_GAPTABLE_EXTREMES
Full data available (Tier 1)Home team drew 2/5 recent gamesElevated draw risk (21.1%) - consider AHElite league - reduced thresholdPREMIUM with draw risk (21%) - skip
Expected Goals (xG)
2.96
Lensvs
0.33
MetzGoal Probability
Lens
0
5%
1
15%
2
23%
3
22%
4
17%
Metz
0
72%
1
24%
2
4%
3
0%
4
0%
CORRECT SCORES
3-0 (10%)4-0 (10%)5-0 (8%)2-0 (8%)3-1 (7%)4-1 (7%)
Over/Under Lines
| Line | Over | Under | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 99% | 1% | OVER |
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% | OVER |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% | OVER |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% | OVER |
| 4.5 | 50% | 50% | - |
| 5.5 | 32% | 68% | UNDER |
| 6.5 | 19% | 81% | UNDER |
League Position
#2
Lens+16
Gap#18
Metz
WR 85% 56 pts
WR 8% 13 pts
Lens
12.0%
| Mar 05 | Lens v Lyon | 2-2 |
| Feb 27 | Lens v Strasbo… | 1-1 |
| Feb 21 | Lens v Monaco | 2-3 |
| Feb 14 | Lens v Paris FC | 0-5 |
| Feb 07 | Lens v Rennes … | 3-1 |
| Feb 04 | Lens v Estac T… | 2-4 |
| Feb 03 | Lens v Reims | 3-0 |
| Jan 30 | Lens v LE Havr… | 1-0 |
| Jan 24 | Lens v Marseil… | 3-1 |
| Jan 17 | Lens v Auxerre | 1-0 |
Metz
2.0%
| Mar 01 | Metz v Stade B… | 0-1 |
| Feb 21 | Metz v Paris S… | 3-0 |
| Feb 15 | Metz v Auxerre | 1-3 |
| Feb 06 | Metz v Lille | 0-0 |
| Feb 01 | Metz v Angers | 1-0 |
| Jan 25 | Metz v Lyon | 2-5 |
| Jan 18 | Metz v Strasbo… | 2-1 |
| Jan 11 | Metz v Montpel… | 0-4 |
| Jan 04 | Metz v Lorient | 1-1 |
| Dec 13 | Metz v Paris S… | 2-3 |
Head-to-Head (9)
| Oct 29, 2025 | Metz | 2-0 | Lens |
| Jul 26, 2025 | Lens | 2-1 | Metz |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Metz | 2-1 | Lens |
| Apr 12, 2024 | Metz | 2-1 | Lens |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Lens | 0-1 | Metz |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Metz | 0-0 | Lens |
| Oct 24, 2021 | Lens | 4-1 | Metz |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Lens | 2-2 | Metz |
| Dec 19, 2020 | Metz | 2-0 | Lens |
Decision Breakdown
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)ODDS60+M70 (77.4%)TOP3vsBot (75.8%)HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)M85+S60 (75.3%)TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%)GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)HOME_FORT (73.3%)TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)HWR60+ (68.3%)POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)CS65+DR<30 (68.0%)xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player
40%
Momentum
94%
Standings
94%
Market
94%
High draw risk (29%) - confidence penalized
Key Factors
Metz struggling (4L in last 5)
AI predictions based on historical data, odds analysis, and backtest validation. Results may vary.